A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
